关键词: 进口贸易, 技术溢出, 经济政策不确定性, 全要素生产率

Abstract: This paper uses bilateral data on trade in goods and services in 20 countries and regions to compare the effects of technology spillovers from different imports on the TFP of importing countries, and further analyzes whether the economic policy uncertainty in exporting countries will reduce the intensity of global technology spillover. The results show that: on the one hand,technology spillovers caused by the trade in goods and services can significantly increase the relative TFP of importing country. The spillover effect intensity of service imports is 0.0432, which is 77.8% higher than that of goods imports, and there is a significant difference between the effect intensity of the two. This means that trade in services has become a more important carrier of global technology spillover. On the other hand, after considering the economic policy uncertainty, it is found that various types of spillovers can still significantly improve the relative TFP of importing countries, but will significantly reduce the intensity of technological spillovers. The impact of economic policy uncertainty on technology spillovers of service imports is 95.5% higher than that of goods imports. The study results show that properly correcting the import structure and selecting partner countries with low economic policy uncertainty is key to strengthening China’s absorption of import technology spillovers.

Key words: Import, Technology Spillover, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Total Factor Productivity