关键词: 技术复杂度, 中间品, 进口依赖, 制造业, 服务业

Abstract: By estimating the import sophistication of intermediate goods of manufacturing and service industries, this paper analyses the effect and mechanism of sophistication of intermediate goods importing influencing the dependence on foreign intermediate goods, and its effect on the quantity and quality improvement of the economy. The results show that firstly highly sophisticated intermediate goods importing will raise the dependence on foreign intermediate goods and the conclusion is robust in the multi-dimensional tests; this mechanism will help sophisticated intermediate goods suppliers become the controller of GVC, and make the importer the captive and follower. Secondly, highly sophisticated intermediate goods importing will have negative effects on the capital accumulation and human resources in R&D in the manufacturing, leading to higher dependence on foreign intermediate goods. The intermediate goods that China imports have much higher sophistication than its developing level, which means that China’s dependence on foreign intermediate goods is higher than the normal level. Thirdly, importing highly sophisticated intermediate goods will greatly promote a country’s economic growth in quantity and quality, so there is a potential conflict between the strategy of promoting economic growth in quantity and quality and the strategy of reducing dependence on imported intermediate goods. This potential conflict also confirms the scientificity and soundness of China’ s current development strategy which takes the domestic cycle as the main body.

Key words: Sophistication, Intermediate Goods, Dependence on Importing, Manufacturing Industry, Service Industry