关键词: 通货膨胀, 经济增长, 面板平滑转换

Abstract: Inflation is an important factor affecting economic growth. Previous studies are built on the basis of linear or threshold regression model. In this paper, panel smooth transition regression model is used to re-test the relationship between them. Through the test we find that the assumption of linearity of inflation on economic growth is significantly rejected, and the smooth transition model better characterizes the relationship between them. The study finds that the threshold value of the inflation is 14.9%. As this value decreased gradually, its effects on economic growth increase gradually; when the threshold value is higher than 14.9%, as inflation continues to increase, its effects decrease gradually, even negative, asymmetry exists evidently. The analysis of marginal effect shows that the coefficient of inflation on economic growth is obviously not the same for each province with obvious heterogeneity, the effect of inflation on economic growth in underdeveloped provinces is greater than that in developed provinces. The test results show that the contribution of investment to economic growth is the greatest, followed by the level of foreign trade; government consumption and the natural population growth rate have negative impacts on economic growth, which is more robust.

Key words: Inflation, Economic Growth, Panel Smooth Transition