统计研究

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习惯形成、要素替代弹性与经济增长

陈凯等   

  • 出版日期:2017-07-15 发布日期:2017-07-18

Habit Formation, the Elasticity of Substitution and Economic Growth

Chen Kai et al.   

  • Online:2017-07-15 Published:2017-07-18

摘要: 为分析在不同的要素替代弹性下,包含习惯形成的经济增长模型是否仍然能够解释“经济增长率越高,储蓄率便越高”现象。本文采用CES生产函数对Cuadrado 等(2004)和席晶等(2013)的模型进行修正,并运用数值模拟发现:无论要素替代弹性等于1还是小于1,经济都具有唯一的均衡点以及动态转移的运行趋势是一致的。当要素替代弹性等于0.8时,技术进步带来当期消费的增加都不会导致经济出现长期的负增长和负储蓄现象。此时,储蓄率要想即满足最终随着经济增长率的加快而上升,同时满足在趋于均衡路径的过程中是不断攀升的,仅要求习惯形成强度大于0.23即可。

关键词: 习惯形成, 要素替代弹性, 经济增长, 储蓄率

Abstract: Many researchers, including Carroll et al.(2000), Cuadrado et al.(2004) and XiJing & LeiQinli(2013), show that if a standard growth model is modified to allow for habit formation in consumption, the model can generate growth-to-saving causality. Our objective is to analyse whether this conclusion still hold with different values of the elasticity of substitution. Utilizing CES function we modify the model and find that whether the elasticity of substitution is equal to 1 or less than 1, the economy has a unique equilibrium point and the dynamic transfer process is the same. Furthermore, numerical simulation analysis shows that when the elasticity of substitution equals to 0.8, the economy will not experience long-run negative growth and negative savings and “growth-to-saving” is correct only if the reference stock .

Key words: Habit Formation, the Elasticity of Substitution, Economic Growth, Saving