统计研究

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全球化有助于促进经济增长吗

黄智淋   

  • 出版日期:2017-07-15 发布日期:2017-07-18

Does Globalization Contribute to Promoting Economic Growth

Huang Zhilin   

  • Online:2017-07-15 Published:2017-07-18

摘要: 本文基于93个国家1970—2014年的面板数据,构建具有截面相关的非平行面板数据误差修正模型,考察全球化对经济增长的长期影响效应与短期影响效应。研究结果表明,全球化与经济增长存在长期稳定的协整关系;全球化对经济增长的长期影响效应显著为正的,而短期影响效应不显著,且长期影响效应随着全球化水平、经济发展水平、人力资本、金融发展水平的提高而增强。这意味着全球化在长期有助于促进经济增长,且全球化水平、经济发展水平、人力资本、金融发展水平越高,越有利于全球化促进经济增长。

关键词: 全球化, 经济增长, 截面相关, 面板数据误差修正模型

Abstract: Based on annual panel data on a sample of 93 countries over the period 1970-2014, this paper investigates the long-run and short-run effect of globalization on economic growth, by using unbalanced panel data error correction model with cross-sectional dependence. Results indicate that there exists a long-run and steady cointegration relationship between globalization and economic growth. On average, there is a significant positive long-run effect of globalization on economic growth, but the short-run effect is not significant. What’s more, the long-run effect becomes even stronger along with the improvement of globalization, economic development, human capital and financial development. This implies that globalization contribute to promoting economic growth in the long-run, the higher the globalization, economic development, human capital and financial development is, the greater the degree of promotion is.

Key words: Globalization, Economic Growth, Cross-sectional Dependence, Panel Data Error Correction Model