关键词: 经济增长, 可计算一般均衡, 能源强度

Abstract: Considering the change of domestic and international factors affecting China’s economic growth, this paper uses a computable general equilibrium model (DRCCGE Model) to simulate three scenarios of China’s economic growth in the future. The results show that the economic growth rate of China is expected to reach about 8% during the 12th Five-Year Plan and in the long run China’s economy still has the potential for rapid growth. And we also find that the main risk is the poor coordination of economic development and the high pressure of resources and environment. The transition of development pattern plays the important role in China’s sustainable growth.

Key words: Economic Growth, CGE, Energy Intensity