关键词: 经济周期, 产业关联, 动态随机一般均衡模型

Abstract: The stabilization of the economic cycle is the basic feature of China’s macroeconomic operation. The article attempts to explain this phenomenon from the perspective of economic service-oriented economy and production network. Specifically, this article introduces the production network of the use of intermediate products in the two-sector DSGE model, which creates an amplification mechanism for technological shocks, and the size of the amplification mechanism depends on the proportion of intermediate product inputs in the two sectors. The conclusion shows that because the industrial sector uses a larger proportion of intermediate goods, its shock amplification mechanism is greater; as the economy becomes service-oriented, the decline in the industrial sector’s share reduces the overall economic impact amplification mechanism, resulting in economic stabilization. This paper confirms the existence of the shock amplification mechanism through numerical simulation of the proportion of intermediate products in the two sectors. Then we calibrate the model parameters in 1995—2007 and 2008—2018, and make a comparative analysis of the economic fluctuations generated by the two-stage model. The result shows that the substitution of the service industry for the industry after 2008 leads to lower economic volatility and higher macroeconomic stability.

Key words: Service-oriented Economy, Production Network, DSGE Models