关键词: 世界经济周期联动, 危机传递路径, 经济一体化

Abstract: This paper develops an economic cycle synchronic index (ESI）, analyzes the transmission path of economic crisis from regional and individual perspectives, and discusses the new trend of economic cycle synchronization in recent years and the possible influential factors. The research shows that the economic cycle synchronization has experienced a process with inverted U-shape since the mid-1990s. The economic cycle synchronization is not a risk carrier; instead, the chains of risk transmission are more linked to the low ESI regions and economies. It is worth mentioning that China is rather independent and shows no link with risk chains neither in the whole sample nor in the crisis period. Non-tariff barriers and tariff barriers have become the main factors restraining the reviving of ESI after the crisis. Besides, the larger gap in wealth and lower trade growth show negative effect on ESI significantly. These findings suggest that promoting the integration of world economy and enhancing the economic relations between the economies is actually an important approach to avoid crisis diffusion and development locally. A stable world economic environment, non-tariff negotiation mechanism for trade disputes and efforts to reduce income inequality are the key factors to promote economic integration.

Key words: Economic Cycle Synchronization, Crisis Transmission Path, Economic Integration