统计研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 80-95.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.02.006

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产业智能化如何影响劳动报酬份额——基于产业内效应与产业关联效应的研究

杨 飞   

  • 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-02-25

How Industrial Intelligence Affects the Share of Labor Compensation in China: Based on the Study of Intra-industry Effect and Industrial Linkage Effect

Yang Fei   

  • Online:2022-02-25 Published:2022-02-25

摘要: 随着人工智能与实体经济深度融合的快速推进,人工智能的大规模应用对劳动力市场将产生较大冲击。鉴于此,本文研究了产业智能化对我国劳动报酬份额的影响。首先,本文构建了基于生产任务的人工智能创新模型,从理论上分析了产业智能化通过产业内效应和产业关联效应对劳动报酬份额的影响,并进一步利用2000—2014年世界投入产出数据(WIOD)实证检验了产业智能化对劳动报酬份额的影响机制。结果发现,替代效应和后向关联效应降低了劳动报酬份额,新工作创造效应、资本积累效应、生产率效应和前向关联效应提高了劳动报酬份额。而且,产业智能化对劳动报酬的影响存在显著的时间和行业异质性。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议,有关部门应密切关注产业智能化对劳动力市场的影响,通过政策引导促进就业扩张型的人工智能创新;建设更加开放、统一的国内市场,以促进人工智能在产业间和地区间的融合;加大技能培训投入,以促进技能劳动间的转岗就业。

关键词: 人工智能, 劳动报酬份额, 产业内效应, 产业关联效应

Abstract: The large-scale application of industrial intelligence will have a greater shock on the labor market with the advancement of the deep integration of artificial intelligence and the real economy. Therefore, this paper studies the impact of industrial intelligence on the share of China's labor compensation. Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes the impact of industrial intelligence on the share of labor compensation through intra-industry effect and industrial linkage effect by constructing an artificial intelligence innovation model based on production tasks, and then empirically tests the impact of industrial intelligence on the share of labor compensation using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) from 2000—2014. The empirical results show that the substitution effect and backward linkage effect reduce the labor compensation share, and the new job creation effect, capital accumulation effect, productivity effect and forward linkage effect increase the share of labor compensation. Industrial intelligence has significant time and industry heterogeneity. Finally, the paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations based on the research conclusions that the government should pay close attention to the impact of industrial intelligence on the labor market, and enhance industrial intelligence innovation which can promote employment expansion through policy guidance, promote the integration of industrial intelligence between industries and regions through building a more open and unified domestic market, and increase investment in skill training to promote job transfer between skilled labor.

Key words: Industrial Intelligence, Share of Labor Compensation, Intra-Industry Effect, Industrial Linkage Effect