关键词: 价值链嵌入, 国际经济周期联动, 出口国内增加值, 中间投入, 非对称

Abstract: Eliminating third-party effect to measure the bilateral embeddedness in global value chain (GVC), this paper studies the relationship between GVC embeddedness and asymmetric comovement of international business cycle. The results show that embedding in GVC brings Chinese manufacturing industry the dilemma of low value-added rate in exports and high proportion of intermediate input in imports, which weakens the business cycle comovement between China and its trade partner in economic expansion, increases business cycle comovement between China and its trade partner in economic contraction, to a certain extent leads to the asymmetric feature that expansion comovement is lower than contraction comovement of international business cycle, and hinders steady economic growth. This phenomenon is prominent before the financial crisis and alleviated after crisis, but still exists. Comparatively, embedding in GVC has greatly weakened economic expansion comovement between China and developing countries, non-EU countries with relatively stable economic growth, and has greatly strengthened economic contraction comovement between China and crisisprone countries such as developed countries and EU countries, which poses a huge potential threat for steady economic growth. In order to avoid the impediment of GVC embeddedness to steady growth, China must increase the share of domestic value-added in manufacturing exports, and strive to reduce the proportion of intermediate input in import. This paper finds out the asymmetric comovement of international business cycle,and explains the causes based on the typical facts of China’s embeddedness in GVC. The research conclusions can provide reference for stable growth policy-making.

Key words: GVC Embeddedness, International Economic Cycle Comovement, Domestic Value-added in Export, Intermediate Input, Asymmetry