统计研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7): 31-42.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.07.003

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通用技术进步框架下全要素生产率核算方法研究

雷钦礼   

  • 出版日期:2022-07-25 发布日期:2022-07-25

Study on Measuring Total Factor Productivity in General Technical Progress Framework

Lei Qinli   

  • Online:2022-07-25 Published:2022-07-25

摘要: 经典索洛全要素生产率核算的希克斯中性技术进步假设与世界经济发展现实并不相符,本文将技术进步的设定扩展为通用技术进步框架,既涵盖希克斯中性、哈罗德中性、费景汉?拉尼斯中性技术进步情形,也涵盖各种偏向性技术进步情形。不同于传统微分方法,本文基于统计指数原理,将产出指数分解为全要素投入指数和全要素生产率指数,采用标准化要素增强型技术(CES)生产函数,推导出了全要素投入(TFI)增长率指数和全要素生产率(TFP)增长率指数的计算方法,构建了一个新的经济增长核算模型,并发现了技术进步偏向对资本深化所导致的要素边际报酬递减的补偿机制。使用新核算模型,全要素生产率变动可以使用经济统计数据直接计算,而不再只能按照索洛“剩余”间接计算。如果要素替代弹性为1或者不存在技术进步偏向和要素配置偏向,那么新核算模型就退化为索洛增长核算方程,索洛核算方程是新核算模型的特例。与经典核算方法相比,新核算模型不仅可以测算出经济增长中全要素投入增长和全要素生产率提升的影响,而且还可以测算出全要素投入增长率中要素投入强度和要素配置偏向变动的影响,以及全要素生产率增长率中技术进步强度和技术进步偏向变动的影响,测算相对更加精细准确。

关键词: 通用技术进步, 经济增长, 全要素投入指数, 全要素生产率指数

Abstract: The classical Solow?s total factor productivity accounting assumes that technical progress is Hicks neutral, which does not match the reality of world economic development. This paper expands the setting of technical progress to general technical progress framework, which can cover Hicks-neutral, Harold-neutral, Fei-Ranis-neutral, and various biased technical changes. According to the principle of statistical index, this paper decomposes the output index into a total factor input index and a total factor productivity index, and adopts the standardized general factor-augmenting technology CES production function to derive the calculation methods of the total factor input growth index and the total factor productivity growth index, and constructs a new economic growth accounting model, then finds the compensation mechanism for diminishing marginal returns due to capital deepening from technical progress bias. The new model can measure TFP changes with economic statistics, rather than indirectly with Solow “residue”. If the factor substitution elasticity is 1 or there is no technical progress bias and factor allocation bias, then the new accounting model degenerates into the classic Solow growth accounting equation, as an exception of the model. The new accounting model can measure both the influence of total factor input growth and total factor productivity increase in economic growth, and the influence of factor input intensity and factor allocation bias in the growth rate of total factor input, and the intensity of technical progress and technical progress bias in the growth rate of total factor productivity. Therefore it is more accurate than classical method.

Key words: General Technical Progress, Economic Growth, Total Factor Input Index, Total Factor, Productivity Index