统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 48-57.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.08.005

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金砖国家装备制造业出口增加值比较研究

刘似臣 张诗琪   

  • 出版日期:2018-08-25 发布日期:2018-08-16

A Comparative Research on Equipment Manufacturing Export Value-added in BRICs

Liu Sichen & Zhang Shiqi   

  • Online:2018-08-25 Published:2018-08-16

摘要: 文章将KWW法扩展,从产业角度创新出口增加值核算方法。分解量化金砖国家装备制造业出口增加值,比较其在全球产业间的流动。不仅得到更真实的贸易利得,还实现了对出口增加值在全球行业间流动的动态分析。结果显示:(1)2000-2014年,中国该行业出口增加值经快速增长,远高于其他国家。2013年后增速回落,出口增加值率先降后升稳定于30%。中巴俄出口增加值率为30%左右,印度最低。(2)从全球流动现状看,金砖国家最终产品出口增加值占比较高。其中,中巴中间产品贸易有较大增加,深入到全球价值链分工体系。中国的重复统计项和出口返回部分最高。而俄印最终产品贸易比重不断增加。生产日益“碎片化”背景下,扩展的KWW法对研究出口增加值有重要的理论意义。

关键词: 出口增加值, 扩展的KWW方法, 金砖国家, 装备制造业

Abstract: This paper extends the KWW method and gives a innovation of the export value-added accounting methods from the aspect of industry. It decomposes and quantifies the export value-added of equipment manufacturing industry in BRICs and compares their flows across the global industries. It gets the accurate export gain and realizes the dynamic analysis on the export value-added flow across the global industries. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2014, export value-added of the industry in China has experienced a fast growth, which is far higher than that of other countries. The growth rate has gradually been falling after 2013. The export value-added rate has decreased at first, and then risen, which stabilized at 30%. At present, the export value-added rate of China, Brazil and Russia are all around 30%, and India is the lowest. (2) From the perspective of the global flow, export value-added of BRICs final products account for a very high share. China's and Brazil's the account of intermediate products have increased considerably, deepening into the global value chain division system. China's repeated statistics and the export value-added returning are the highest. Russia's and India's the account of final products have increased. In the context of global value chain division developing deeply, it has important theoretical significance for further study of export value-added.

Key words: Domestic Export Value-added, the Improved KWW Method, BRICs, Equipment Manufacturing Industry