关键词: 户籍人口, 老龄化系数, 峰值期, 总和生育率, VAR模型

Abstract: By using the life table theory, the UN’s growth model of average life expectancy and the age-shift algorithm, this article predicts that the peak period of elderly population in Beijing will be the year of 2037. According to the data of the household registration population in Beijing from 1978 to 2010, we build the VAR model whose elderly population prediction meets the peak period of elderly population. We use this model to predict the total population, elderly population and aging coefficient of Beijing from 2011 to 2050 by setting a forecasting method of calculating the future trends of inter-city net migration and low, medium, high total fertility rates. The result shows that based on the forecast of the low, medium and high total fertility rates, the total population of Beijing will respectively peak in 2023, 2024 and 2025, with the number of 13.77 million, 13.89 million and 13.97 million, while the elderly population will peak in 2037 with the number of 2.42 million, and the aging coefficient, which will respectively reach 21.25%, 20.25% and 19.82% in 2050, shows a rising trend during the prediction period. Finally, with regard to the predicted result, the article proposes suggestions on coping with the aging of the population in Beijing.

Key words: Household Registration Population, Aging Coefficient, Peak Period, Total Fertility Rate, VAR Model