统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 26-38.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.07.003

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中国短期资本外流规模再估算及其影响因素分析

李昕 谭莹   

  • 出版日期:2019-07-25 发布日期:2019-07-29

Re-estimation of China’s Short term Capital Outflow Scale and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Li Xin & Tan Ying   

  • Online:2019-07-25 Published:2019-07-29

摘要: 通过比较资本外流的三种核算口径,本文将间接法与权益差额调整法相结合,对我国1982-2016年资本外流的规模进行估计。结果显示,2008年全球金融危机以来,我国资本外流规模逐年增加且近年呈增速递增趋势。通过构建非限制性VAR模型,本文进一步对导致资本外流的结构性与周期性“推动”及“拉动”因素进行分析,经验结果显示,2008年全球金融危机爆发至2013年美联储货币周期转向以前,导致我国资本外流的主要因素为人民币贬值预期与我国经济周期性调整等国内“推动”因素。2014年以来,我国资本外流进一步加剧主要受美国经济复苏步伐加快以及我国房地产市场调整等国内外“拉动”与“推动”因素共同作用。其中,外部“拉动”因素是主要诱因。在资本加速流出背景下,我国金融开放步伐应渐进审慎。

关键词: 短期资本外流, 进出口高低报额, 美联储加息, 房地产调控, 非限制性VAR模型

Abstract: By comparing the accounting calibers related to capital outflow, this paper chooses the indirect method combined with interest gap adjustment method to estimate the scale of China’s capital outflow from 1982 to 2016. The result shows that since the financial crisis, China’s capital outflow has increased year by year, and has shown a faster expanding trend in recent years. By using a non-restrictive VAR model and analysis framework including structural and cyclical “push” factors and “pull” factors that reflect capital outflows, this article finds that from the financial crisis to 2013 before the Fed monetary cyclical reversion, the main driving factors are domestic “push” factors such as the expectation of RMB depreciation and the cyclical adjustment of the domestic economy. Since 2014, China’s capital outflow has further intensified mainly due to domestic and international “pull” or “push” factors such as the acceleration of the US economic recovery and the adjustment of the domestic real estate market. Among them, the “pull” factor is the main cause. In the context of accelerated capital outflows, China needs to be more prudential in financial liberalization.

Key words: Short-term Capital Outflow, Import and Export Mis-invoicing, Fed Rate Hike, Real Estate Regulation, Non-restrictive VAR Model