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### 中国短期资本外流规模再估算及其影响因素分析

• 出版日期:2019-07-25 发布日期:2019-07-29

### Re-estimation of China’s Short term Capital Outflow Scale and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Li Xin & Tan Ying

• Online:2019-07-25 Published:2019-07-29

Abstract: By comparing the accounting calibers related to capital outflow, this paper chooses the indirect method combined with interest gap adjustment method to estimate the scale of China’s capital outflow from 1982 to 2016. The result shows that since the financial crisis, China’s capital outflow has increased year by year, and has shown a faster expanding trend in recent years. By using a non-restrictive VAR model and analysis framework including structural and cyclical “push” factors and “pull” factors that reflect capital outflows, this article finds that from the financial crisis to 2013 before the Fed monetary cyclical reversion, the main driving factors are domestic “push” factors such as the expectation of RMB depreciation and the cyclical adjustment of the domestic economy. Since 2014, China’s capital outflow has further intensified mainly due to domestic and international “pull” or “push” factors such as the acceleration of the US economic recovery and the adjustment of the domestic real estate market. Among them, the “pull” factor is the main cause. In the context of accelerated capital outflows, China needs to be more prudential in financial liberalization.