• 论文 •

中国经济向新常态转换的冲击影响机制研究

• 出版日期:2016-06-15 发布日期:2016-06-03

The Impact Mechanism of Shocks to China's Transformation to the New Normal Economy

Liu Yaocheng & Xu Xiaoping

• Online:2016-06-15 Published:2016-06-03

Abstract: This paper studies the impact mechanism of shocks to China's transformation to the New Normal Economy since 2007. We use SV-TVP-VAR model to analyze the impact mechanism of technology shock and investment shock on behave of supply and demand shocks to China's economic fluctuations during 2001Q1~2015Q3. We find there exists a structural change to the impact mechanism around 2007,which we can specify as, firstly investment shock has a positive impact in the short run but its volatility increase hence, and it has a increasingly negative impact in the meddle and long run. Contrarily, technology shock has a positive impact and the impact increases no matter in the short, meddle or long run, but the impact decrease from 2014. Secondly, from the quantity aspect, the impact of investment shock increase since 2007 but the impact from technology shock remains stable. These conclusions declare that the negative impact from demand shocks should be the main reason for China's structural change to New Normal Economy, however, both impact from supply and demand shocks deteriorate recently, and we also put forward some corresponding policy recommendations.