关键词: 宏观收入分配, 居民消费, 资本形成, 滚动回归, 经济增长

Abstract: This paper uses financial flow statements, household income and expenditure survey data, fiscal data to systematically calculate China’s macro income distribution structure since 1952 using the fitting method. Based on this, it deeply analyzes the development and changes of China’s macro income distribution structure since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. With the main indicators of the share of household sector income and the proportion of labor remuneration, it analyzes the differences between China’s macro income distribution structure and that of developed economies. Based on data measurement and analysis, a multiple linear regression model and a rolling regression model are constructed using time series data from 1953 to 2022 to empirically test the impact of income distribution related indicators on consumption and economic growth. The research results show that: Firstly, since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the overall income share of the household sector in China has shown a fluctuating downward trend, and gradually rebounds after the 2008 international financial crisis. The average income share of the household sector is about 20 percentage points higher than the proportion of labor remuneration to GDP. Secondly, compared with other economies such as Europe, America and Japan during the same period, it is shown that the income share of China’s household sector is about 20 percentage points lower, and compared to similar development stages, it is about 10 percentage points lower. This is greater than the gap in the proportion of labor remuneration between China and developed economies, indicating that the income share of China’s household sector is relatively low and it has a relationship with the insufficient regulatory effect of redistribution. Thirdly, empirical research shows that investment, consumption, and export are all important driving forces for China’s economic growth. Increasing the household sector income share has a greater effect on promoting consumption than inhibiting capital formation, thus significantly driving economic growth. However, increasing the household sector income share has weakening marginal effect.

Key words: Macro Income Distribution, Resident Consumption, Capital Formation, Rolling Regression, Economic Growth