关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 居民消费, DID模型

Abstract: The sudden outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic in late January 2020 has brought serious impact to the economic and social operation, and the household consumption has declined sharply. It is of great significance to accelerate the recovery of household consumption to maintain stable economic growth and build a new development pattern. Based on the data of the National Household Survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China from December 2018 to May 2019 and December 2019 to May 2020 respectively, and the special survey data on household consumption conducted in May 2020, this paper constructs a difference-in-difference (DID) model to study the impact of the epidemic on household consumption and its time trend, as well as the contribution of various factors of the epidemic on household consumption to explore the internal mechanism of the impact of the epidemic on household consumption. The result shows that in the 17 weeks (from January 20 to mid-May) after the outbreak of the epidemic, the consumption expenditure of residents decreases by 19.5% on average. Consumer expenditure increases in the first week after the outbreak, and declines the most seriously in the second to fourth weeks. In the fifth week, it begins to rebound significantly and maintains the trend of recovery with fluctuation, but does not return to the normal growth path by mid-May. The contribution rates of consumption item restriction, income decline risk awareness rise and consumption scenario change to the average decline of household consumption are 29.6%, 29.4%, 15.9% and 13.0% respectively. Factors other than household income, that is, the impact of the epidemic on the economic and social environment and residents’ consumption psychology are the main factors affecting the decline of residents’ consumption after the outbreak of the epidemic.

Key words: Covid-19, Household Consumption, DID Model