关键词: “一带一路”, 贸易网络, 贸易群体, 网络闭合机制, 影响机制

Abstract: In the context of the increasingly complex trade network of the “Belt and Road”, this paper innovatively introduces the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) with reciprocity and network closure mechanism from the perspective of trade groups, and discusses and compares the structure, formation mechanism and influencing factors of the “Belt and Road” trade network involving bilateral trade and group trade in 2014, 2018 and 2020. The research shows that since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward, trade groups have become the main characteristic of the trade network of countries along the “Belt and Road” at the present stage; The trade network presents a trade pattern in which several core countries drive the trade linkage of surrounding small countries and promote the gradual integration of existing trade groups; From the perspective of trade as a whole, the network shows a “loose” core-periphery structure with high nodes and overlapping triangular structure as the core; From the perspective of trade groups, from 2014 to 2020, the mode of trade has changed from direct trade with transmission closure to indirect trade with circular closure, and then to trade with expansionary closure. The existence of trade groups amplifies the positive role of complementary trade networks and the effect of major countries. With the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Southeast Asia Trade Group has gradually expanded, which shows that the proposal and development of the Belt and Road Initiative has enhanced China’s influence and promoted the development of trade relations among countries along the “Belt and Road”. According to the characteristics of trade networks and trade groups, policy suggestions are put forward, which provide a reference for promoting the development of the “Belt and Road”.

Key words: “Belt and Road”, Trade Network, Trade Groups, Network Closure Mechanism, Influence Mechanism