关键词: 重大突发事件, 全球价值链, 实际有效汇率, 贸易网络, 出口竞争力

Abstract: Using the Covid-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, this paper investigates the impact of major emergencies on major countries? industrial export competitiveness from the global-value-chain perspective. We focus on the geographic scope, extent, and duration of the impact, while the industrial export competitiveness is measured by the real effective exchange rate. The empirical results show that in general, the Covid-19 shocks not only significantly weaken the real effective exchange rate of local industries in our sample, but also produce significant large-scale spillover effects through industrial chains. In the dimension of time, it is characterized by a gradual change from the initial dominance of direct impact to the indirect impact through global value chains. In the spatial dimension, the industrial real effective exchange rates in the U.S., Eurozone countries, and Japan that use major international currencies have dropped significantly. It is found that among the 35 countries in this study, only China experiences a greater net spillover effect caused by other economies than the impact caused by the domestic pandemic, while the U.S. experiences the impact mainly from the direct impact of the pandemic in its own country. In addition, the impacts on the 56 industries are different, of which the impacts on the transportation and logistics, construction, food, energy, industrial metal manufacturing, and pharmaceutical product manufacturing are at the forefront. The research conclusions have the potential to provide support for China?s policy-making in response to major emergencies, including the optimization of the industrial structure and the improvement of local industries? position in the global value chain.

Key words: Major Emergency, Global Value Chain, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Trade Network, Export Competitiveness