统计研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7): 43-55.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.07.004

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关于资本利用率宏观测算指标与方法的研究

王开科 曾五一   

  • 出版日期:2022-07-25 发布日期:2022-07-25

Research on the Macro Measurement Indicators and Methods of Capital Utilization Rate

Wang Kaike & Zeng Wuyi   

  • Online:2022-07-25 Published:2022-07-25

摘要: 测算生产率、分析经济增长时忽视资本利用率会对经济生产的实际情况产生误判。针对现有资本利用率宏观测算指标的缺失问题,本文从统计内涵、统计内容与统计指标三方面系统地搭建出一个新的资本利用率宏观测算指标框架,设计出涵盖资本生产能力和资本实际使用的资本利用率宏观统计指标。在此基础上,结合政府宏观统计数据测算了我国1978—2019年的资本利用率,并利用上市公司财务指标数据开展微观层面的测算与对比,建立了从宏观测算结果走势到微观数据解构之间的分析机制。整体来看,改革开放以来,我国综合维度资本利用率平均水平为76.28%,在经历“波动→波动上升→下降”走势之后,2017年开始回升,主要是采矿业和制造业的资本利用状况改善,以及“调结构”和“补短板”带来的增量效应。本研究为资本利用率宏观测算提供了理论与方法支撑,也为经济增长研究和经济结构分析中资本投入指标的处理提供了新思路。

关键词: 资本利用率, 宏观测算, 统计指标, 微观解构

Abstract: Ignoring capital utilization rate when analyzing economic growth and estimating productivity will lead to incorrect estimates of the economic production. Aiming at the shortcomings of existing studies in the macro measurement of capital utilization rate, the article constructs a new macro measurement framework of capital utilization rate, defines the statistical connotation and content of capital utilization rate and designs a macro statistical indicator from capital production capacity and actual use of capital. On the basis of this measurement framework, combining the existing government statistical data, the article estimates China’s capital utilization rate since 1978 from a macro perspective, uses the financial indicators of listed companies to carry out a micro-level calculation and contrast, and establishes an analysis mechanism from the trend of macro-measurement results to the deconstruction of micro-data. On the whole, the average level of China’s capital utilization rate is 76.28% since the reform and opening up. After experiencing the trend of “volatility→rise in volatility→decline”, the capital utilization rate began to pick up in 2017 which is mainly due to the improvement in the capital utilization status of mining and manufacturing industries, as well as the incremental effect brought about by “adjusting the structure” and “making up the shortcomings”. This research provides theoretical and methodological support for the macro-evaluation of capital utilization rate, and also provides new ideas for the treatment of capital investment indicators in economic growth research and economic structure analysis.

Key words: Capital Utilization Rate, Macro Measurement, Statistical Indicators, Microstructure Analysis