关键词: 全球贸易摩擦, 贸易转移效应, 贸易偏转效应, 第三国效应

Abstract: As the world?s largest trading country and a key link in the global supply chain and global value chain, how does the increasingly fierce global trade frictions affect China?s international trade? Based on the Global Trade Alert Database (GTA), this paper constructs panel data in the initiator-recipient-product-time dimension from 2005 to 2018, and uses poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) method to analyze the direct effect and third-country effect of global trade frictions on China?s import and export.The results show that: Nowadays, the target countries of global trade frictions have shifted from China to multiple countries, and are mainly centered around low- and mid-range products and tariffs, import control measures, and behind-the-border measures. China has played an important role in both the supply side and the demand side of the global trade system because of its unique big country advantages and industrial advantages. Specifically, global trade frictions leads to China?s export growth of 19.43% and import growth of 6.08%. Moreover, the trade frictions between other countries promote China?s exports mainly in the trade frictions between North and South and between South and South. Although the trade frictions between China and the initiator and recipient countries has a significant effect in promoting trade, it presents an asymmetric effect. At the same time, unlike import restrictions that significantly promote China?s trade with recipient countries and initiator countries, export restrictions significantly inhibit China?s imports from recipient countries and exports to initiator countries, and promote China?s imports from initiator countries.The findings of this paper provide a scientific basis for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of global trade frictions and testing China?s position in global economy and trade.

Key words: Global Trade Frictions, Trade Diversion Effect, Trade Deflection Effect, Third Country Effect