统计研究

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

房价与收入分配的内生性及其互动关系

张传勇   

  • 出版日期:2014-01-15 发布日期:2014-01-07

The Endogeneity and Interactive Relationship between Housing Price and Income Distribution

Chuanyong Zhang   

  • Online:2014-01-15 Published:2014-01-07

摘要: 房价持续性快速上涨与收入分配逐渐拉大问题引起广泛关注,但对于两者之间的关联性与互动性并未形成一致观点。本文以房价和居民收入分配为内生变量,同时选取影响房价和居民收入分配的多个外生变量建立了联立方程模型。通过对2000-2010年我国27个省份的样本进行实证分析后发现,房价与居民收入分配之间存在明显的内生关系,两者相互影响的方向均为正向,且收入分配对房价的作用效果要强一些。考虑到城市化率也会推动房价上涨,因而在当前新型城镇化推进过程中,尤其要注重采取适当调控措施预防房价同步上涨,同时要制定合理的房产保有环节税收政策以防止房价上涨产生的收入分配效应过大。

关键词: 房价上涨, 收入分配, 内生性, 联立方程

Abstract: The problems of housing price rising rapidly and income gaps widening gradually caused widespread concern in the community, but there is not a consistent view of the association and interaction for them. In this paper, we set housing price and income distribution as endogenous variables, and select multiple exogenous variables affecting the price and income distribution simultaneously to establish a simultaneous equations model. With an empirical analysis of a sample of 27 provinces in China from 2000 to 2010, we find that housing price and income distribution are endogenous, more importantly, the interaction between these two variables both are positive and income distribution is more pronounced impact on house prices. Thus, taking into account the urbanization rate promoting housing prices, we should emphasis on take appropriate control measures to prevent the house prices rising synchronously in the process of China's New Urbanization particularly and develop a reasonable tax on maintaining the property to prevent income distribution effect on housing prices is too large.

Key words: Housing Price Rising, Income Distribution, Endogeneity, Interaction