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### 处理效应模型的理论拓展及在政策评价中的应用

• 出版日期:2020-09-25 发布日期:2020-09-18

### Theoretical Extension of Treatment Effect Model and Its Application in Policy Evaluation

Ji Yuanyuan　Li Shiqi　Zhu Pingfang

• Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-09-18

Abstract: The assumptions are quite restrictive in the treatment effect model used by current literature on policy evaluation but difficult to verify in practice. Once the assumptions are mistaken, parameter estimation will be inconsistent. Firstly, this paper proposes a semi-parametric estimation method for treatment effect model under a non-parametric framework. In our model, we don’t assume functional forms, and also allow the joint distribution of the error terms to be a general form of heteroscedasticity, which greatly reduces the risk of model misspecification. This paper considers treatment effect under endogeneity, and proposes a two-step approach. The first step uses a non-parametric estimator in the selection equation, and the second step uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate average treatment effect in the outcome equation. Secondly, the proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Furthermore, compared with the existing methods, the Monte Carlo simulation result shows our method is more robust. Finally, we apply our method to empirically estimate the impact of certification policy for high-tech enterprises on their profitability, and find this policy can help promote the profitability, and has a greater impact on private enterprises than state-owned enterprises.