关键词: 最低工资, 杠杆率, 要素替代, 盈利预期

Abstract: Using the matching data of above-scale industrial enterprise database and national minimum wage at county level from 2007-2012, this paper discusses how minimum wage affects firm leverage. It′s found that the effects of minimum wage improvement on firm′s short and long leverages are heterogenous. In detail,when minimum wage increases by 10%, there will be a 0.42percentage point rise in long leverage while a 0.29percentage point decline in short leverage. To explain such heterogeneity, two mechanisms are suggested:“factor substitution” and “profitability expectation”. Under effect of factor substitution, the rise of minimum wage means capital becomes relatively cheaper than labor, which encourages enterprises to replace labor with capital, shown in the increase in leverage, especially long-term leverage. As for the profitability expectation effect, the rise in production cost will worsen the enterprise′s profitability expectation, leading to a decline in investment and an overall contract in liability, asymmetrically shown in short-term liability. Furthermore, when we separate firms according to high/ low labor intensity and market competition level, the heterogeneous analysis finds that the rise in long-term leverage resulting from factor substitution is only significant for the high-labor intensity firms, and the decline in short-term leverage resulting from profitability expectation is only significant among the firms in highly competitive markets.

Key words: Minimum Wage, Leverage, Factor Substitution, Profitability Expectation