关键词: 制造业PMI, 本底趋势线, X-13A-S, 损失评估

Abstract:

A significant damage to China's manufacturing industry has been made by the 2008 international financial crisis. It is of great importance to evaluate the crisis' impact for the establishment of scientific prevention mechanism. In this article we use X-13A-S model to decompose China's manufacturing PMI, study the volatility of sub-composition in crisis and crisis' dynamic evolution process. In addition, we build the natural trend line, divide life cycle and make assessment. The main conclusions are as follows: 1)X-13A-S model has a good effect on the adjustment of the index, the long-term trend is divided into three periods and seasonality's fluctuation is significantly characterized by ‘three peaks and three tough’. Outliers correspond to the crisis events. 2)The PMI lost 5.11% and 49.31% informer and later period of full-blown, the average is 1.28% and 4.11%. the sum loss is 54.42%. 3)The whole crisis lasted 16 months: from January to April 2008 was generation period, from May to December 2008 was full-blown period, from January to May 2009 was recession period, from June to August 2009 was dying-out period. 4)The full-blown period is divided into two parts by August, the dynamic mechanism shows ‘former is trend-cycle, later is irregular’.

Key words: Manufacturing PMI, Natural Trend Curve, X-13A-S, Loss Assessment