• 论文 •

### 基于PMI分解的制造业损失评估

• 出版日期:2016-08-15 发布日期:2016-08-11

### China's Manufacturing Loss Assessment Based on PMI Decompostion

Gui Wenlin & Tang Cuiwei

• Online:2016-08-15 Published:2016-08-11

2008年金融危机对我国制造业造成巨大冲击，对危机的影响进行评估对建立科学的危机预防机制具有重要的意义。文章运用X-13A-S模型将我国制造业PMI进行分解，研究各成分在危机期间的波动情况，分析金融危机的动态演变过程并构建本底趋势线进行损失评估，最后划分金融危机的生命周期。结论表明：①X-13A-S模型对指数调整效果较好，长期波动趋势分为三个时期；季节成分波动表现为“三波峰、三波谷”；异常值与危机事件相对应。②全面爆发前期PMI指数损失5.11%，平均损失1.28%，爆发后期指数损失49.31%，平均损失4.11%，本轮危机共损失54.42个百分点。③2008年1月至4月为生成期，2008年5月至12月为全面爆发期，2009年1月至5月为衰退期，2009年6月至8月为消亡期，整个危机持续16个月。④全面爆发时期以8月份为分界点，表现出“前期趋势-循环成分，后期不规则变动”的动态机制。

Abstract:

A significant damage to China's manufacturing industry has been made by the 2008 international financial crisis. It is of great importance to evaluate the crisis' impact for the establishment of scientific prevention mechanism. In this article we use X-13A-S model to decompose China's manufacturing PMI, study the volatility of sub-composition in crisis and crisis' dynamic evolution process. In addition, we build the natural trend line, divide life cycle and make assessment. The main conclusions are as follows: 1)X-13A-S model has a good effect on the adjustment of the index, the long-term trend is divided into three periods and seasonality's fluctuation is significantly characterized by ‘three peaks and three tough’. Outliers correspond to the crisis events. 2)The PMI lost 5.11% and 49.31% informer and later period of full-blown, the average is 1.28% and 4.11%. the sum loss is 54.42%. 3)The whole crisis lasted 16 months: from January to April 2008 was generation period, from May to December 2008 was full-blown period, from January to May 2009 was recession period, from June to August 2009 was dying-out period. 4)The full-blown period is divided into two parts by August, the dynamic mechanism shows ‘former is trend-cycle, later is irregular’.