关键词: 婴儿死亡率, 验证, 动态模型, 预测, 重新构建, 调整校正

Abstract: According to the infant mortality dynamic changes with GDP per capita, we screened the best verification model. Then we verified reconstructed infant mortality rate (1952-1980) and adjusted infant mortality rate (1981-1990) by the time series model. The results showed that the power function model was relatively good validation model, the fitting precision of which was poorer than the time series prediction model. When the predictive results of validation model and the time series model were compared with history infant mortality, there was no significant difference between them. And the predictive results coincided with infant mortality monitored after establishment of a national monitoring network. We thought that the reconstructed and adjusted infant mortality rate by time series was more reliable and closer to the actual level.

Key words: Infant Mortality Rate, Validation, Dynamic Model, Forecast, Reconstruction, Adjustment