统计研究

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基于复杂网络视角下省际人口迁移空间格局及趋势研究

李毅等   

  • 出版日期:2017-09-15 发布日期:2017-09-20

Complex Network Modeling Spatial Pattern and Trend of Interprovincial Migration

Li Yi et al.   

  • Online:2017-09-15 Published:2017-09-20

摘要: 本文提出一套省际人口迁移空间格局及趋势研究系统,以省级行政区和迁移人口构建复杂网络模型,应用群集发现和互信息节点重要性评估的算法对人口迁移空间格局进行分析,同时引入人口迁移选择指数改进链路预测算法来预测迁移人口的潜在趋势。在此基础上,以第六次全国人口普查数据为例,其结果与已有的研究及我国省际人口迁移空间格局的现实状况相符,验证了这套方法的实践性和应用价值。

关键词: 省际人口迁移, 复杂网络, 空间格局, 链路预测

Abstract: This paper proposes a set of spatial analysis and prediction system on interprovincial migration. It builts the complex network model with provincial-level region and migrants. It also applies the community detection algorithm and the node importance evaluation method to analyze the spatial pattern of interprovincial migration. Then it introduces the migration preference index to improve link prediction algorithm so as to predict the potential trends of the interprovincial migration. Based on the sixth nationwide population census data, the results are consistent with the existing research and the real spatial patterns of China's interprovincial migration, which indicate the practicality verification of the method.

Key words: Interprovincial Migration, Complex Network, Spatial Pattern, Link Prediction