统计研究

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数字偏好对经营绩效的影响—以企业电话号码为例

刘海洋 唐晓   

  • 出版日期:2014-06-15 发布日期:2014-07-14

Effects of Digital Preference on Operating Performance—Taking Telephone Numbers as an Example

Haiyang Liu & Xiao Tang   

  • Online:2014-06-15 Published:2014-07-14

摘要: 本文基于《中国工业企业数据库》(1999-2007年)的相关数据,选定企业固定电话号码中的8为吉祥数字,研究了吉祥数字文化对企业绩效影响。文章首先分析了带有8的吉祥电话号码的地域和行业分布特征。然后运用随机效应模型对吉祥号码和企业利润进行了实证分析,进而用广义矩估计方法(Generalized Method of Moments,GMM)克服内生性,结果表明吉祥的数字的确会给企业利润带来显著的正向影响。然后对数字4进行对照分析,结果从侧面验证了数字8的吉祥功能。进一步对号码进行分级研究发现电话后四位带有8的个数越多,对企业的利润促进作用越大,但是这种“吉祥溢价”对企业的利润的促进作用随着时间逐渐减弱并有趋同的倾向。故吉祥数字并不能给企业带来持久优势,加大企业的实力和产品优势才真正有利于企业长期发展。

关键词: 吉祥数字, 企业绩效, GMM

Abstract: Based on the relevant data of “Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database 1999-2007”, this paper studies the impact of propitious numbers on enterprises performances. In this paper, we take digit 8 as the propitious number. The article firstly analyzes distribution characteristics of the telephone numbers with 8 in different region and industry. We use random effects model to do the empirical analysis and use Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to solve the endogenous problem. The results reveal that propitious numbers can indeed bring remarkable positive impact on enterprises profits. And then, we have a compared test with number 4, whose result indirectly supports the propitious functions of number 8. Next, we rank the telephone numbers according to how many number 8 has been in the last four digit, and found that the more the telephone number with digit 8, the more positive role propitious numbers have on promoting the profit of the enterprise. However, such propitious premium shows a tendency of convergence as time goes on. Therefore, propitious numbers do not bring enterprises lasting advantage。Entrepreneurs should increase the corporate strength and promote the advantage of products to make a long-term development.

Key words: Lucky Number, Enterprise Performance, GMM