统计研究

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多维框架下中国家庭贫困的动态识别

高艳云 马瑜   

  • 出版日期:2013-12-15 发布日期:2013-11-28

The Dynamic Research on the Poverty for Chinese Household Based on the Multidimensional Framework

Yanyun Gao & Yu Ma   

  • Online:2013-12-15 Published:2013-11-28

摘要: 如果仅考虑一个时点的贫困,很难把握贫困的动态变化特点,在政策制定上也不能做到有的放矢。本文首先在多维视角下,选用了9个指标识别出家庭在某个时点是否贫困,然后将家庭在不同时点贫困状态的变动区分为三种类型,并采用有序响应probit模型,着重从家庭层面和区域层面来揭示什么样的家庭容易慢性贫困,什么样的家庭不容易贫困。主要的结论是加强教育等人力资本投资、改善人口结构、平衡地区发展差距等都是改善贫困的重要方面。

关键词: 多维贫困, 贫困分类, 动态研究, 有序响应probit模型

Abstract: When analyzing the poverty without dynamic perspective view, it is hard to understand the poverty completely. Based on the multidimensional poverty framework, the paper use 9 indicators to identify which household is poor or not. Then all households are classified into three different types that are chronic poverty, transitory poverty and never poor. The ordered response probit model is used to analyze what kind of the households are easily vulnerable. The main conclusions are that education, household structure and balanced regional development are important factors to improve poverty.

Key words: Multidimensional Poverty, Classification of Poverty, Dynamic Research, Ordered Response Probit Model