关键词: 经济预测, 灰色关联分析, 排名赋值分析

Abstract: This article evaluates the 14 forecast results provided by foreign and domestic institutions and scholars about China’s GDP growth rate in 2006-2010 by using Gray correlation analysis and ranking evaluation and analyses the bias of these forecasts. The results show that: (1) Song Guo-qing from Peking university and Chinese Academy of Sciences give the most correct forecasts; The People’s Bank of China, Deutsche Bank, Asian Development Bank, and United Nations come in the last four;(2)The better of economy, the bigger of forecast bias;(3) The background of forecasters has relationship with forecast bias. Scholars tend to have smaller forecast bias while institutions tend to have bigger one; (4)When economy flourishes, each forecaster tend to underestimate, but in economic depression, scholars tend to overestimate while institutions tend to underestimate(except 2008).

Key words: Economic forecast, Gray correlation analysis, Ranking evaluation