关键词: 通货膨胀, 市场冲击, BVAR模型, 门限模型

Abstract: Firstly, we establish a Bayesian Vector Auto-regression (BVAR) model and analyze the impulse responses of inflation to macroeconomic factors and its intensity. In addition, we establish a Threshold model and analyze the threshold effects of inflation when different variables are used as threshold variables. Through the empirical researches, we find that the impulse responses of inflation to shocks from six factors are different. The temporary response to excess liquidity is the most strongest and those to stock price, output gap and oil price are moderate. Then the intensity responding to real exchange rate and house price are the weakest. The stock price, real exchange rate and oil price have obvious threshold characteristics, which can separately divide the inflation into high and low status. These findings help us understand and recognize the responding mechanism of inflation better. Thus we can take sound economic policies to deal with inflation.

Key words: Inflation, Impulse Response, BVAR model, Threshold Model