关键词: 最大似然估计, 非均衡模型, 信贷市场

Abstract: In order to study fitting performance of supply and demand and the key factors that lead to credit aggregate misalignment in Chinese credit market, this paper adopts maximum likelihood approach to estimate a disequilibrium model using credit quarterly data from 1997Q1-2009Q2,. Empirical results show: (1) There are 32 quarters when credit supply is smaller than credit demand, and 15 quarters that credit supply is larger than credit demand. Precisely speaking, the Chinese credit market can be divided into four phases, in year 1997-2001 and 2005-2007, credit supply is seriously smaller than credit demand; while credit supply is larger than credit demand in 2002-2004 and after the third quarter of 2008 in the credit market, the proportion of credit excess supply is about 18.37% in the first quarter of 2009; (2) Bank lending capacity is a significant factor that can affect credit supply, the higher the bank lending capacity is, the more the credit supply is. Credit supply in 2009 is far over the banks’ lending capacity. 

Key words: Maximum likelihood estimation, Disequilibrium model, Credit market