关键词: 知识产权保护, 农产品贸易依赖网络, 时态指数随机图模型, 推拉效应

Abstract: Breeding innovation caused by intellectual property protection has overturned the traditional agricultural intensive production model and trade competition pattern. What is its impact on the evolution of the world’s agricultural trade dependence network? This is a question worthy of in-depth exploration. Based on the agricultural product trade data of 101 economies from 1995 to 2019, we use social network analysis, temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) and its decomposed formation model and dissolution (or persistence) model (STERGM) to quantitatively evaluate the impact of intellectual property protection on the evolution of global agricultural trade dependence network, and further use the Heckman two-stage model to analyze the impact mechanism. Research findings: The intellectual property protection of exporters and importers forms two repulsive forces of “push” and “pull” respectively. The strengthening of intellectual property protection by exporters hinders the formation of new dependencies and increase the probability of dissolution of old dependencies by generating quality improvement effects, category expansion effects, and market decentralization, thereby reducing the degree of agricultural product trade dependence among economies. However, through the market power effect and quality screening effect, the intellectual property protection by importers is more conducive to the formation of new dependencies and the maintenance of old dependencies in the trade dependence network, and thus deepens the degree of trade dependence among economies. This article provides empirical support for the establishment of an effective agricultural intellectual property protection system and enhance the international trade competitiveness of agricultural products in China.

Key words: Intellectual Property Protection, Agricultural Trade Dependence Network, Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model, Push-Pull Effect