统计研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 93-107.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.11.008

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金融“脱实向虚”背景下双支柱调控框架构建与政策协调

陈志成 张 敏 刘 震 潘雨晨   

  • 出版日期:2023-11-25 发布日期:2023-11-25

The Construction of Dual-Pillar Regulatory Framework and Policy Coordination under the Background of Financial Capital Being Diverted out of the Economy

Chen Zhicheng Zhang Min Liu Zhen Pan Yuchen   

  • Online:2023-11-25 Published:2023-11-25

摘要: 2008年国际金融危机以来,影子银行无序发展造成金融体系“脱实向虚”问题愈发严重,传统信贷渠道受阻,社会融资出现结构性失衡。对此,中国人民银行强化影子银行监管并创设多种结构性货币政策工具,在遏制影子银行无序发展的同时定向支持实体经济扩大信贷融资,双管齐下破解金融“脱实向虚”问题。本文将结构性货币政策与影子银行宏观审慎监管纳入双支柱调控框架,分析双支柱调控框架的政策效应与可行的政策搭配。研究发现,传统的信贷监管与总量货币政策容易诱发监管套利行为,难以实现精准调控。相较而言,结构性货币政策可以定向降低银行信贷资金成本,疏通信贷渠道,推动金融“向实”;影子银行宏观审慎政策可以限制影子银行盲目扩张,促进金融“脱虚”。进一步研究表明,两类政策具有叠加效应,可以形成较好的政策合力。此外,有效识别影子银行底层资产风险可以通过风险渠道抑制影子银行逆周期扩张,在货币政策紧缩阶段达成更好的政策效果。本文研究为双支柱相关政策边界拓展与政策协调搭配提供了新的分析思路与建议。

关键词: 监管套利, 影子银行, 结构性货币政策, 宏观审慎政策

Abstract: Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the disorderly development of shadow banks has led to the increasingly serious problem of “departure from real to virtual” in the financial system, the obstruction of traditional credit channels and the structural imbalance of social financing. In this regard, the People’s Bank of China has strengthened the supervision of shadow banking and created a variety of structural monetary policy tools. While curbing the disorderly development of shadow banking, the People’s Bank of China has targeted support for the real economy to expand credit financing, to solve the problem of financial capital Being diverted out of the economy. This paper brings the structural monetary policy and shadow banking macro-prudential supervision into the “dual-pillar” regulation framework, and analyzes the policy effect and feasible policy matching of the “dual-pillar” policy framework. The study finds that the traditional credit regulation and aggregate monetary policy are likely to induce regulatory arbitrage, which is difficult to achieve precise regulation. In contrast, structural monetary policy can reduce the cost of bank credit funds, dredge credit channels and realize financial “reality”. The macro-prudential policy of shadow banks can limit the blind expansion of shadow banks and reduce the “virtuality” of finance. Further research shows that the two types of policies have a superposition effect, which can form a better policy synergy. In addition, effectively identifying the underlying asset risk of shadow banks can inhibit the countercyclical expansion of shadow banks through risk channels and achieve better policy effect in the stage of monetary policy tightening. This study provides new analytical ideas and conclusions for the “dual-pillar” policy boundary expansion and policy coordination.

Key words: Regulatory Arbitrage, Shadow Banking, Structural Monetary Policy, Macro-prudential Policy