统计研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 73-87.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2023.04.006

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金融结构对金融风险影响的空间外溢性与区域异质性研究

刘超 孙晓鹏   

  • 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-04-25

Research on the Spatial Spillover and Regional Heterogeneity of the Impact of Financial Structure on Financial Risk

Liu Chao & Sun Xiaopeng   

  • Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-04-25

摘要: 厘清金融结构对金融风险影响的空间外溢性与区域异质性,对优化金融结构、稳定金融发展有着重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文基于2003—2019年我国省级年度的经济、金融相关数据,使用空间杜宾模型探究金融结构不同层次的演化对金融风险的空间溢出规律与特征、区域异质性。研究发现:金融结构、金融风险具有地区差异性,两者的波动趋势具有反向相似性;金融结构、金融风险均具有显著的空间正相关关系;金融开放结构对金融风险呈现显著负向空间溢出效应,金融产业结构、金融资产结构对金融风险呈现显著正向空间溢出效应;金融市场结构、金融开放结构、金融资产结构对金融风险的影响存在区域异质性。本文研究结论为区域间金融风险水平的差异提供新的解释视角,也为制定金融结构优化策略与金融发展战略提供了经验启示。

关键词: 金融结构, 金融风险, 空间外溢性, 区域异质性

Abstract: It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to clarify the spatial spillover and regional heterogeneity of the impact of financial structure on financial risk for optimizing financial structure and stabilizing financial development. This paper uses the Spatial Durbin Model to explore the spatial spillover rules, characteristics and regional heterogeneity of financial structure on financial risk with China?s provincial annual economic and financial data from 2003 to 2019. The results show that there are regional differences between financial structure and financial risk, and the fluctuation trend of both has reverse similarity. Financial structure has a significant spatial positive correlation, so does financial risk. The financial open structure has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on financial risks, while the financial industrial structure and financial asset structure have significant positive spillover. The influence of financial market structure, financial opening structure and financial asset structure on financial risks is heterogeneous in different regions. This paper not only provides a new perspective of explanation for the regional differences in financial risk levels, but also provides empirical inspiration for making strategies of financial structure optimization and financial development.

Key words: Financial Structure, Financial Risk, Spatial Spillover, Regional Heterogeneity