统计研究

• 论文 • 上一篇    

参考利率风险调整思路的比较与重构

李佩瑾 徐蔼婷   

  • 出版日期:2016-06-15 发布日期:2016-06-03

Comparison and Reconstruction of Reference Rate Risk-adjusted Method

Li Peijin & Xu Aiting   

  • Online:2016-06-15 Published:2016-06-03

摘要: 为准确核算包含风险管理服务的FISIM产出,2008版SNA提出了对参考利率进行风险调整的建议。鉴于国民核算专家提出的多种参考利率风险调整思路无法同时满足“实践性”、“稳定性”和“国际可比性”要求,联合国国民经济核算工作组(ISWGNA)建议继续开展关于参考利率风险调整思路的研究。本文阐释了风险调整参考利率法的基本原理,对参考利率风险调整的可能思路进行了探讨。通过对较有代表性的三类调整思路的分析,本文归纳了参考利率风险调整的分歧问题。进一步地,基于对风险管理服务机制的阐述和各国金融机构经营现状的考察,本文重新探讨了分歧问题并提出了一种新的参考利率风险调整思路。根据我国数据的检验表明,新的参考利率风险调整思路兼顾“实践性”、“稳定性”和“国际可比性”。

关键词: 2008版SNA, FISIM, 参考利率法, 金融风险管理, 风险调整

Abstract: SNA2008 suggests that reference rate in FISIM accounting should be adjusted to adding up credit-default risk premium, to make the FISIM accounting more accurately. Since the approaches that have been suggested cannot meet the demands of practicality, stability and international comparability at the same time, ISWGNA Task Force recommends that research continues in this area. In this paper, we construct a model to analyze the fundamental theory of risk-adjusted reference rate approach, and present the probable reference rate risk-adjusting methods. Through the analysis on three representative methods, we induce the differences of these methods. Moreover, we probe into these differences and thus suggest a new kind of reference rate risk-adjusting method by stating the mechanism of risk management and the management status globally. Test on Chinese data shows that this new method is practicable, stable and international comparable.

Key words: SNA2008, FISIM, Reference Rate Approach, Financial Risk Management, Risk Adjustment