统计研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 23-37.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11–1302/c.2022.05.002

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基于人与自然和谐共生的绿色发展:DGE 理论框架与城市面板检验

黄和平 杨新梅 周瑞辉 刘耀彬
  

  • 出版日期:2022-05-25 发布日期:2022-05-26

Green Development Based on the Harmonious Co-existence between Humans and Nature: DGE Theoretical Framework and Urban Panel Test

Huang Heping Yang Xinmei Zhou Ruihui Liu Yaobin   

  • Online:2022-05-25 Published:2022-05-26

摘要: 绿色发展是实现城市经济高质量增长的重要支撑,绿色发展要求人与自然和谐共生、经济与生态共赢。为进一步解析绿色发展的内涵,本文将环境资源作为特殊的生产要素引入动态一般均衡框架,构建一个包含最终产品部门、环境部门和清洁技术研发部门等七部门的内生增长模型,推导出实现绿色发展的均衡解。然后以最终产品部门的物质生产函数和污染物排放量函数构建联立方程组,基于2003—2017年我国286个城市面板数据实证检验我国城市实行绿色发展的必要性。研究发现,第一,研发部门的人力资本投入越大、研发部门和人力资源部门的生产效率越高、消费者的时间贴现率及风险偏好越低,则城市经济增长率越高,越有利于绿色增长。第二,欲实现人与自然和谐共生的绿色发展,环境资源存量的增长率必须大于经济增长率和消费增长率,人工环境修复和净化能力将在绿色发展中扮演越来越重要的作用。第三,劳动力和物质资本等传统要素投入仍然是带动我国城市经济总量增长的主要力量,且每增加1个百分点的经济总量的同时会带来0.8个百分点以上的污染排放;农业产业占比和工业污染产业占比分别以高于0.49和0.27的弹性系数值带来城市环境污染增加。环境污染以0.24以上的弹性系数抑制了我国及其西部城市经济增长。环境规制具有减污效应。综上表明我国城市走绿色发展之路必然且紧迫。

关键词: 人与自然和谐共生, 城市绿色发展, 动态一般均衡模型, 联立方程组

Abstract: Green development is an important support for high-quality urban economic growth, which requires the harmonious co-existence between humans and nature and the win-win of economy and ecology. In order to further analyze the connotation of green development, this paper introduces environmental resources as a special production factor into the dynamic general equilibrium framework, constructs an endogenous growth model including the final product department, environmental department, clean technology R&D department and other 4 departments, and deduces the equilibrium solution to realizing green development. Based on the panel data of 286 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2017, this paper empirically tests the necessity of green development in Chinese cities by constructing the simultaneous equations of material production function and pollution discharge function of the final product department. The results show that: firstly the higher the human capital investment of R&D department, the higher the production efficiency of R&D department and human resources department, the lower the time discount rate and risk preference of consumers—the higher the urban economic growth rate and the more conducive to green growth. Secondly, in order to realize the green development of co-prosperity between humans and nature, the growth rate of environmental resources stock must be greater than that of economy and consumption, and the repair and purification capacity of artificial environment will play an increasingly important role in green development. Thirdly, the input of traditional factors such as labor and material capital is still the main force driving the growth of China’s urban economic aggregate, and for every 1% increase in economic aggregate, pollution discharge will increase by more than 0.8%. The proportion of agricultural industry and industrial pollution industry increases urban environmental pollution with elastic coefficient values higher than 0.49 and 0.27 respectively. Environmental pollution restrains the economic growth of China and its western cities with the elasticity coefficient of more than 0.24. Environmental regulation has the effect of pollution reduction. In conclusion, it is necessary and urgent for Chinese cities to take the road of green development.

Key words: Harmonious Co-existence between Humans and Nature, Green Development of Cities, Dynamic General Equilibrium Model, Simultaneous Equation Model