统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (10): 87-99.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.10.007

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老龄化、老年家庭消费与补偿消费行为

魏瑾瑞 张睿凌   

  • 出版日期:2019-10-25 发布日期:2019-10-25

Aging Society, Elderly Family Consumption and Compensatory Consumption Behavior

Wei Jinrui & Zhang Ruiling   

  • Online:2019-10-25 Published:2019-10-25

摘要: 基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2011年基线调查以及2013年和2015年追踪调查数据,本文使用因子分析和非随机断点回归设计等方法,以家庭为分析的基本单位,从补偿性消费行为理论的视角探究老龄化背景下老年家庭消费需求及其结构变动。研究发现:①老年家庭的补偿性消费需求随年龄增长而缓慢上升,但这个过程并不是连续的,而是在63岁和71岁两个年龄节点处存在显著跳跃,与政策节点相比略有延迟;②63岁断点处向上跳跃的幅度为5~7个百分点,跳跃幅度较小,而71岁断点处向上跳跃的幅度大约为20%。仿照联合国的年龄划分标准,可将63岁作为我国老年人进入年轻老年的年龄节点,71岁作为进入老年阶段的年龄节点;③不同断点处支撑老年家庭补偿性消费需求结构变动的影响因子并不相同。驱动63岁年龄节点跃动最显著的影响因子是教育培训,这可能是为了延迟补偿年轻时的教育缺憾,或再次进入劳动力市场,但也不能排除对孙辈的教育负担;驱动71岁年龄节点跃动最显著的影响因子是医疗保健、文化娱乐和交通通讯,旅游支出减少可能是经济或身体方面的原因,也可能是因为国家为满70周岁的老年人出游提供了各种优惠和减免政策。

关键词: 老龄化, 老年家庭消费, 补偿消费行为, 非随机断点设计

Abstract: Based on the data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011, 2013 and 2015, we use factor analysis and nonrandomized regression discontinuity design to explore the consumption structure of the elderly families in the context of aging from the perspective of compensatory consumption. The study finds that:① The elderly family compensatory consumption increases slowly but not continuously with age. There is a significant jump at the age of 63 and 71, slightly delayed compared with the policy nodes. ② The policy nodes increase compensatory expenditure by 5 to 7 percent at 63-year-old break point and about 20 percent at 71-year-old break point. Following the criteria of age division of the United Nations, the age of 63 can be regarded as the starting point for the young senior stage and 71 for the old senior stage in China. ③ The change of compensatory consumption is mainly caused by different factors at different break points. Education is the most significant factor driving the jump of at 63 years old, compensating for the educational defects or re-entering the labor market. But we can’t rule out the educational burden of their grandchildren. Healthcare, entertainment, transportation and communication are influence factors driving the jump at 71 years old. The decrease in tourism expenditure may be an economic or physical cause, or the state promulgation of various preferential policies for the elderlies over 70 years old.

Key words: Aging, Elderly Family Consumption, Compensatory Consumption, Nonrandomized Discontinuity Design