统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 65-74.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.01.007

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人口老龄化与代际财政不平等——基于代际账户核算法的模拟分析

龚锋 余锦亮   

  • 出版日期:2018-01-25 发布日期:2018-01-25

Population Ageing and Fiscal Inequality among Generations in China: A Simulation Analysis Based on Generational Accounting Method

Gong Feng & Yu Jinliang   

  • Online:2018-01-25 Published:2018-01-25

摘要: 本文采用代际账户核算方法,模拟测算了中国“现存代”和“未来代”的净税收负担值,探讨人口老龄化与代际财政不平等的关系。结果显示:如果保持当前财税制度和社会保障体制不变,未来代的净税收负担要明显高于现存代,中国存在较为严重的代际财政不平等问题,而且未来人口老龄化的进程越快,代际财政不平等程度就越高;但是,老龄化与代际财政不平等的关系还取决于劳动生产率和折现率的变化,折现率越低以及劳动生产率的增长率越高,将会缓解老龄化对代际财政不平等的冲击。据此本文认为,应逐步放开生育政策、延长退休年龄、提高劳动生产率,以改善老龄化背景下的代际财政失衡状况。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 代际账户核算, 代际财政不平等, 净税收负担

Abstract: This paperexplores the relationship between population aging and intergenerational fiscal inequality. The result shows thatthe net tax burden of future generation is much higher than current generation, which indicates that there is severe intergenerational fiscal inequality in china, and the faster the population aging grows, the higher the inequality become. Otherwise,the relationship between population aging and intergenerational fiscal inequality also depends on variation of labor productivity and the discount rate, the high labor productivity growth rate and lowdiscount rate will alleviate the impact of aging on intergenerational fiscal inequality. The policy implications of this paper is the government should gradually opened up the family planning policy, extend the retirement age of the elderly residents and improve labor productivity, to ease the situation of intergenerational fiscal imbalances under the background of aging.

Key words: Population Ageing, Generational Accounting, Intergenerational Fiscal Inequality, Net Tax Burden