统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 88-98.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.05.009

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出口边际网络特征及国家二元身份匹配适度区间研究

孙天阳等   

  • 出版日期:2018-05-25 发布日期:2018-05-25

The Network Characteristics of Export Margins and the Moderate Matching Intervals of National Dual Status

Sun Tianyang et al.   

  • Online:2018-05-25 Published:2018-05-25

摘要: 基于1995-2013年BACI数据库HS-6分位5017种产品218国家之间的双边贸易大样本数据,构建出口扩展边际和集约边际网络,从“关联”的角度考察国家在整个出口边际网络中的身份和地位,并探讨国家在二元网络中身份匹配的适度区间。研究结果表明:扩展边际网络存在“轴心-辐条”的格局特征,而集约边际网络的结构分布比较均衡,中国在扩展边际网络中处于“桥梁”和“枢纽”地位,但出口和进口对象还需进一步多元化。一国应实现与其出口广度相匹配、适度的出口强度。尽管中国出口的产品-国家组合已比较广泛,但在纺织服装和鞋类产品、其他低技术产品、加工产品、工程产品、电力设备这些产品出口集中程度仍超出适度的范围。

关键词: 出口边际, 社会网络分析, 网络特征, 适度区间

Abstract: Based on the large sample data of bilateral trade among 218 countries, including 5017 products in HS-6 digits from 1995 – 2013 in the BACI database, this paper constructs the network of extensive and intensive export margins, and explores the moderate intervals of the matching identity in the dual network in the respect of “linkages” taking the national identity and positions of each country in the whole export network into account. The research results present that there exists the axis and spoke” pattern in the network of extensive export margins, while the structural distribution of the intensive export margin network is comparatively balanced; China plays a "bridge" and "hub" role in the extensive margin network, but the export destination and import origin countries need to be extended. One country should match its export extension with its moderate export intensity. Although the product-country pairs of China's exports are extensive enough, the export concentration of those products, such as textile, clothing and footwear products, other low tech products, processed products, engineering products and electric equipment still goes beyond the moderate interval.

Key words: Export Margins, Social Network Analysis, Network Characteristics, Moderate Interval