关键词: 中央转移支付, 地方财政支出, 幸福, 空间面板计量模型

Abstract: This paper mainly discusses how central transfer payment affects local fiscal expenditure, and thereby affecting people's livelihood and welfare. By constructing a general equilibrium model based on the theory of economics of happiness, and using 31 mainland provincial spatial panel data during 1997-2013 in China, this study found that incremental budget existed in local fiscal expenditure for a long time. There’s significant flypaper effect in social security expenditure during 2007-2013. Significant comparison effect existed in local fiscal expenditure on basic construction during 1997-2006. Social consumption inertia had a positive incentive to the social security expenditure after 2007.The mechanism of the way central transfer payment affects local fiscal expenditure was greatly influenced by spatial factors. Some kinds of the expenditure were affected by the social and economic factors more from other provinces than the local one during 1997-2006. But all kinds of local fiscal expenditure were generally affected by the social and economic factors more from itself than other provinces after 2007.

Key words: Central Transfer Payment, Local Fiscal Expenditure, Happiness, Spatial Econometric Panel Data Model