统计研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 29-36.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球贸易隐含碳排放格局的变动及其影响因素

蒋雪梅 刘轶芳   

  • 出版日期:2013-09-15 发布日期:2013-09-04

Research on the Pattern Change of Carbon Emission Embodied in International Trade and Its Determinants

Jiang Xuemei & Liu Yifang   

  • Online:2013-09-15 Published:2013-09-04

摘要: 基于覆盖全球40个主要经济体的全球范围投入产出表(WIOT),本文基于综合环境、经济影响的测度指标—出口单位增加值的隐含碳排放,实证比较了1995年和2008年主要发达国家和发展中国家为获得出口增加值所承担的隐含碳排放情况。在此基础上,采用结构分解方法从时间维度上对各国出口贸易隐含碳强度的变化、从空间维度上各国该强度的差异进行了分解分析。结果表明:1995-2008年,发达国家和发展中国家的出口单位增加值的隐含碳排放呈现下降趋势;但直至2008年,发展中国家为获得出口单位增加值所承担的隐含碳排放仍然远高于发达国家。造成差距的主要原因是各国在碳减排技术上的相对差距,因此从全球角度,促进发达国家向发展中国家的“碳减排技术”转移是实现全球碳减排的关键且有效路径。

关键词: 贸易隐含碳, 全球范围投入产出表, 结构分解模型

Abstract: Based on a set of World Input-Output Tables (WIOT) in1995 and 2008, this paper empirically measures carbon emission embodied in per unit of value added of exports for the main developed and developing countries. By using structural decomposition technique, this paper also explores the underlying reasons behind both changes over time and the difference over space for the countries. It is found that developing countries experienced faster decrease in carbon embodied in per unit value added of exports than developed countries during 1995-2008. However, until 2008, the developing countries are still responsible for much higher carbon emission than developed countries when they receive as same as value added from exports. The structural decomposition shows that the differences in carbon reduction technique (indicated as contribution of carbon intensity) are one of the most important reasons. From the aspect of global carbon reduction, it seems very important to encourage the technique transfer from developed countries to developing countries.

Key words: carbon embodied in international trade, world input-output tables, structural decomposition model