统计研究

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中国对外贸易隐含碳排放余额的测算与责任分担

王文治 陆建明   

  • 出版日期:2016-08-15 发布日期:2016-08-11

Calculation on China’s Balance of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade and Responsibility Sharing

Wang Wenzhi & Lu Jianming   

  • Online:2016-08-15 Published:2016-08-11

摘要:

基于WIOD提供的世界投入产出数据,本文采用Full-MRIO模型测算了中国与世界40个主要经济体之间的生产侧碳排放、消费侧碳排放和贸易隐含碳排放余额,并首次提出将贸易利益作为分配因子,对中国与各国的贸易隐含碳排放余额进行分配。结果显示,研究期间中国生产侧碳排放一直显著高于消费侧碳排放,且对多数国家的贸易隐含碳排放余额呈现顺差,中国实际为全球消费承担了碳排放,而非仅为发达国家;中国90.41%的贸易隐含碳排放顺差来自制造业,行业碳排放强度较高是造成顺差的主要原因;在以贸易利益为分配因子的共担责任原则下,中国2009年承担的碳排放责任比生产责任原则下低6.7%,比消费责任原则下高12.9%,按共担责任原则计量中国的碳排放责任更加合理和折衷,体现了“谁获益、谁承担;利益大、责任大”的分配原则。

关键词: 生产侧碳排放, 消费侧碳排放, 贸易隐含碳排放余额, 增加值贸易, FULL-MRIO模型

Abstract:

This paper estimates China’s production and consumption-based emissions and Balance of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade (BCEET) between China and 40 countries based on the Full Multi-Regional Input-Output Model and World input-output database, and allocates the BCEET by using trade benefits as allocation factor. The results show that:Firstly, China’s production-based emissions were higher than consumption-based emissions during the study period. To most of countries China’s BCEET was surplus, China actually undertook carbon emissions not only for developed countries’ consumptions, but also for global consumptions. Secondly, 90.41% of China’s surplus of BCEET was from manufacturing industry because of its high carbon emission intensity. Thirdly, by using trade benefits as allocation factor, China’s carbon emissions responsibility under Shared Responsibility was lower 6.7% than under Production Responsibility and higher 12.9% than under Consumption Responsibility in 2009. Shared Responsibility is a more appropriated and eclectic method and reflects the allocation principle, which is "who benefits, who undertakes; the more benefits, the more responsibility".

Key words: Production-based Emissions, Consumption-based Emissions, Balance of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade, Trade in Value-added, Full Multi-Regional Input-Output Model