关键词: 进口持续时间, 生存分析, 离散时间cloglog模型

Abstract: This paper examines the duration of import relationships in China using CEPII-BACI database at the HS 6-digit product level from 1999 to 2006. We find the median duration of import relationships is 1 year, the mean duration is 2.26 year and the hazard function of import relationships is negative duration dependence. We use a discrete-time cloglog model to estimate the determinants about duration of import relationships, and find that the traditional gravity variables have similar effects on the duration of import relationships, at the same time, exchange fluctuations, initial value and product differentiation and so on also have effects on the duration of import relationships. Therefore, we should pay attention to the duration of import relationships when adjusting our import policy.

Key words: Duration of Import Relationships, Survival Analysis, Discrete-time cloglog Model