关键词: 货币政策, 传导渠道, 产业非均衡效应, SVAR模型

Abstract: The paper constructs a SVAR model set, including four variables of industrial GDP, foreign exchange reserves, consumer price index and intermediary target of monetary policy and measures the effects of different monetary policy shocks on industries by using China quarterly data from 1999 to 2011. It is concluded that: ①The strength and time lag of shock from composite channel is strongest and shortest, while the credit channel shock is medium and moderate, and the interest rate channel shock is weakest and longest. ②In credit channel and even composite channel, response of secondary industry is strongest, primary industry is the next one and tertiary industry is weakest. Whereas in interest rate channel the secondary industry ranks first, the tertiary industry and the primary industry is the second and the third respectively. ③The response time lag differences of three industries to different monetary policy shocks is more consistent. The shortest is tertiary industry and primary industry is longest. The conclusions above have revelation significances for policy operation and management.

Key words: Monetary Policy, Transmission Channel, Unbalanced Effects on Industries, SVAR Model