关键词: CAFTA, 贝叶斯空间杜宾模型, 区域经济收敛, 贸易成本

Abstract: In this paper, we use Bayesian spatial Durbin model to study regional economic convergence of China-ASEAN FTA (CAFTA) with concern of spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity, and especially focus on analyzing the impact of trade costs on regional convergence. The empirical estimation reveals that: (1) Firstly the regional economy is converging in the indirect effect and the overall effect, but is divergent in the direct effect. It means that establishment and development of the CAFTA relieve the internal economic divergence, however it still suffers from the risk of the potential imbalance in regional economic growth; (2) Secondly due to the establishment and development of CAFTA, trading cost has been decreasing. As a result, its negative role in regional economic convergence is changing to be a neutral role. So China has to further reduce the cost of trade within the region and enhance the interaction between home and abroad of the FTA on the basis of the implementation of “One Belt and One Road” strategy and using the "interconnectivity", in order to coordinate the economic growth between China and its trade partners and create a better external environment for the upgrading of CAFTA.

Key words: CAFTA, Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model, Regional Economic Convergence, Trade Cost