关键词: 系统抽样, 脉冲响应函数, 累积脉冲响应, 通胀惯性

Abstract: In the study about the dynamic characteristics of economic variables using time series model, the estimation results will vary with thefrequency of observation. In this paper, we study the influence of systematic sampling on impulse response function (IRF) and cumulative impulse response (CIF), to explore the relationship between IRFs of different observation frequency, and more robust measure of the persistence of economic variables. Based on the above, the dynamic characteristics of Chinese inflation are investigated. The result shows that, CIF and inertial coefficient usually increase with sample observation frequency increasing; the effect of temporal aggregation on IRF stems from the different definition of exogenous shock, which means that the economic implication of IRF’s numerical value is limited, but the duration of the response to a shock can be examined by IRF; The response of Chinese inflation to exogenous shock lasts about 2 years, and 90% of them is achieved within 1 year. Therefore, the central bankshould have strongability to predictthe future inflation trend, and implement monetary policy without delay to reduce the cost of disinflation.

Key words: Systematic Sampling, Impulse Response Function, Cumulative Impulse Response, The Persistence of Inflation