关键词: 预期寿命, 空间相关性, Lee-Carter模型, Bayesian随机效应模型

Abstract: In recent years, the average life expectancy of population in China has significantly increased. Under the influence of socio-economic situations and living and medical levels, the average life expectancy of population differs significantly between urban and rural areas, between male and female, and among the provinces. Based on Bayesian random-effect model, we estimate the mortality differences and the life expectancy of population in different provinces, in urban and rural areas, and of different genders with the sixth population census data. The model takes into account the interactions of the spatial correlation of mortality and ages, so that the results can show trend of the life expectancy in China better.

Key words: Life Expectancy, Spatial Correlation, Lee-Carter Model, Bayesian Random-effect Model