关键词: 死亡率改善, 随机趋势性, 随机波动性

Abstract: This paper takes the males aged 70 as a representative of the elderly and presents an empirical analysis of stochastic volatility and trend of mortality based on the data of the year 1996-2010 from the National Bureau of Statistics. Considering the limited and incomplete mortality date in China, we give up the traditional Lee-Carter model and use Monte Carlo method to build stochastic mortality models by analyzing the reasons of mortality improvement. By comparing combination models with different mortality improvement reasons, we study on the relationship between stochastic mortality volatility and trend, and then select the best model as mortality projection model. It can overcome the mortality underestimate and makes the future mortality prediction more accurate and reliable.

Key words: Mortality Improvement, Stochastic Trend, Stochastic Volatility