关键词: 函数型数据, 函数型预测模型, 死亡率预测, 函数型主成分分析

Abstract: Population mortality，reflecting the death level of the population，is an important factor of the scale of the population.At the same time，it is the significant data basis for life insurance actuarial science.On the characteristic of the data，as a function of age，Mortality is a typical functional data。This paper build a functional prediction model for mortality，based on Chinese age-specific mortality data from 1994~2010，forest the future aged-specific mortality and calculate the average life expectancy by the method of life table.In addition to this，prediction results by historical data shows that the prediction results is credible.

Key words: functional data, functional prediction model, mortality prediction, functional principal component analysis